Matchett Elliott L, Fleskes Joseph P
Western Ecological Research Center, United States Geological Survey, Dixon, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2017 Jan 9;12(1):e0169780. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169780. eCollection 2017.
The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.
尽管加利福尼亚中央谷地存在广泛的人为景观改造以及历史湿地减少的情况，但它仍是北美越冬水鸟最重要的地区之一。与全球许多其他地中海气候生态系统一样，中央谷地面临着人口迅速增长以及农业和城市发展的扩张与集约化，这些都对野生动物栖息地产生了影响。城市发展、供水管理变化以及与全球气候变化相关的降水和气温变化对中央谷地水鸟栖息地面积的未来影响尚不确定，但可能相当大。因此，我们使用水资源和情景建模框架，对2006 - 2099年17种气候、城市化、供水管理和湿地恢复情景下的水鸟栖息地面积进行了建模。到2065年，规划的湿地恢复在很大程度上补偿了气候、城市化和供水管理变化对栖息地面积的不利影响，但此后除一种情景外，其他情景下均有所不足。气候模型预测的栖息地减少情况比近期历史气候下更为频繁且幅度更大，并且其幅度随时间增加。2065年之后，所有包括严重变暖、变干气候情景下的水鸟栖息地面积预计在大多数年份都比“现有”景观减少超过15%。水鸟栖息地减少最多的情况出现在结合了变暖、变干气候以及影响水鸟栖息地可用水的优先级和供应量的合理供水管理方案的情景中。这种情景建模解决了中央谷地景观、相关供水的利用和管理以及气候方面的复杂性和不确定性问题，为水鸟栖息地保护和其他资源管理规划提供了参考。结果表明，可能需要加强湿地恢复以及采取额外的保护和气候变化适应策略，以维持足以支持中央谷地水鸟的栖息地。
