Leong Darryl P, McKee Martin, Yusuf Salim
The Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2017 Jan 20;12(1):e0169821. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169821. eCollection 2017.
National sporting achievement at the Olympic Games is important for national pride and prestige, and to promote participation in sport. Summer Olympic Games medal tallies have been associated with national wealth, and also social development and healthcare expenditure. It is uncertain however, how these socioeconomic factors translate into Olympic success. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the relationship between population muscle strength and Olympic medal tallies.
This study of handgrip strength represents a cross-sectional analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, which is an ongoing population cohort study of individuals from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Within participating countries, households from both urban and rural communities were invited to participate using a sampling strategy intended to yield a sample that was representative of the community. Households were eligible if at least one member was aged 35-70 years and if they intended living at the same address for a further four years. A total of 152,610 participants from these households, located in 21 countries, were included in this analysis. Handgrip strength was measured using a Jamar dynanometer. Olympic medal tallies were made over the five most recent Summer Games. There was a significant positive association between national population grip strength (GS) and medal tally that persisted after adjustment for sex, age, height, average daily caloric intake and GDP (total and per capita). For every 1kg increase in population GS, the medal tally increased by 36% (95% CI 13-65%, p = 0.001) after adjustment. Among countries that won at least one medal over the four most recent Summer Olympic Games, there was a close linear relationship between adjusted GS and the natural logarithm of the per capita medal tally (adjusted r = 0.74, p = 0.002).
Population muscle strength may be an important determinant of Summer Olympic Games medal success. Further research is needed to understand whether population muscle strength is modifiable, and whether this can improve Olympic medal success. Extreme outcomes may reflect the average attributes of the population from which the individual experiencing the extreme outcome is drawn.
奥运会上的国家体育成就对于民族自豪感和声望以及促进体育参与至关重要。夏季奥运会奖牌总数与国家财富、社会发展和医疗保健支出相关。然而，尚不确定这些社会经济因素如何转化为奥运会的成功。因此，本研究的目的是探讨人口肌肉力量与奥运会奖牌总数之间的关系。
本项握力研究是对城乡前瞻性流行病学（PURE）研究的横断面分析，该研究是一项正在进行的针对高、中、低收入国家人群的队列研究。在参与研究的国家中，采用旨在产生具有社区代表性样本的抽样策略，邀请城乡社区的家庭参与。如果家庭中至少有一名成员年龄在35 - 70岁之间，并且打算在同一地址居住至少四年，则该家庭符合条件。本分析纳入了来自21个国家的这些家庭中的152,610名参与者。使用Jamar测力计测量握力。奥运会奖牌总数是最近五届夏季奥运会的统计结果。在对性别、年龄、身高、平均每日热量摄入和GDP（总量和人均）进行调整后，国家人口握力（GS）与奖牌总数之间存在显著的正相关。调整后，人口GS每增加1kg，奖牌总数增加36%（95%CI 13 - 65%，p = 0.001）。在最近四届夏季奥运会中至少获得一枚奖牌的国家中，调整后的GS与人均奖牌总数的自然对数之间存在密切的线性关系（调整后r = 0.74，p = 0.002）。
人口肌肉力量可能是夏季奥运会奖牌成功的重要决定因素。需要进一步研究以了解人口肌肉力量是否可改变，以及这是否能提高奥运会奖牌成功率。极端结果可能反映了产生该极端结果的个体所在人群的平均特征。
