Desgorces François-Denis, Berthelot Geoffroy, El Helou Nour, Thibault Valérie, Guillaume Marion, Tafflet Muriel, Hermine Olivier, Toussaint Jean-François
IRMES, Institut de Recherche Médicale et d'Epidémiologie du Sport, INSEP, Paris, France.
PLoS One. 2008;3(11):e3653. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0003653. Epub 2008 Nov 5.
In order to understand the determinants and trends of human performance evolution, we analyzed ten outdoor events among the oldest and most popular in sports history. Best performances of the Oxford-Cambridge boat race (since 1836), the channel crossing in swimming (1875), the hour cycling record (1893), the Elfstedentocht speed skating race (1909), the cross country ski Vasaloppet (1922), the speed ski record (1930), the Streif down-hill in Kitzbühel (1947), the eastward and westward sailing transatlantic records (1960) and the triathlon Hawaii ironman (1978) all follow a similar evolutive pattern, best described through a piecewise exponential decaying model (r(2) = 0.95+/-0.07). The oldest events present highest progression curvature during their early phase. Performance asymptotic limits predicted from the model may be achieved in fourty years (2049+/-32 y). Prolonged progression may be anticipated in disciplines which further rely on technology such as sailing and cycling. Human progression in outdoor sports tends to asymptotic limits depending on physiological and environmental parameters and may temporarily benefit from further technological progresses.
为了了解人类运动成绩演变的决定因素和趋势，我们分析了体育史上最古老且最受欢迎的十项户外运动项目。牛津剑桥赛艇比赛（自1836年起）、英吉利海峡游泳横渡（1875年）、一小时自行车纪录（1893年）、埃尔夫斯登托赫特速滑比赛（1909年）、越野滑雪瓦萨滑雪赛（1922年）、速度滑雪纪录（1930年）、基茨比厄尔速降滑雪赛（1947年）、东西向帆船跨大西洋纪录（1960年）以及夏威夷铁人三项赛（1978年）的最佳成绩均遵循相似的演变模式，通过分段指数衰减模型（r(2)=0.95±0.07）能得到最佳描述。最古老的项目在其早期阶段呈现出最高的进步曲率。根据该模型预测，成绩渐近极限可能在40年后（2049±32年）实现。对于帆船和自行车等更依赖技术的项目，可能会预期有更长时间的进步。户外运动中的人类进步往往取决于生理和环境参数的渐近极限，并且可能会暂时受益于进一步的技术进步。
