IRMES, Insep, Paris, France.
PLoS One. 2010 Jan 20;5(1):e8800. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008800.
The growth law for the development of top athletes performances remains unknown in quantifiable sport events. Here we present a growth model for 41351 best performers from 70 track and field (T&F) and swimming events and detail their characteristics over the modern Olympic era. We show that 64% of T&F events no longer improved since 1993, while 47% of swimming events stagnated after 1990, prior to a second progression step starting in 2000. Since then, 100% of swimming events continued to progress.We also provide a measurement of the atypicity for the 3919 best performances (BP) of each year in every event. The secular evolution of this parameter for T&F reveals four peaks; the most recent (1988) followed by a major stagnation. This last peak may correspond to the most recent successful attempt to push forward human physiological limits. No atypicity trend is detected in swimming. The upcoming rarefaction of new records in sport may be delayed by technological innovations, themselves depending upon economical constraints.
在可量化的体育赛事中，顶尖运动员表现的发展规律仍然未知。在这里，我们为 70 个田径和游泳项目的 41351 名最佳运动员提供了一个增长模型，并详细描述了他们在现代奥林匹克时代的特征。我们表明，自 1993 年以来，64%的田径项目不再提高，而 47%的游泳项目在 1990 年后停滞不前，直到 2000 年开始第二个进步阶段。此后，100%的游泳项目继续进步。我们还为每个项目每年的 3919 个最佳表现（BP）提供了一个非典型性的衡量标准。这个参数在田径项目中的长期变化揭示了四个高峰；最近的一次（1988 年）之后是一个重大的停滞。最后一个高峰可能对应于最近一次成功尝试推动人类生理极限的突破。在游泳项目中没有检测到非典型性趋势。体育界新纪录的稀缺可能会因经济限制而依赖的技术创新而延迟。
