Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 23;7:41150. doi: 10.1038/srep41150.
Ecological overshoot has been accelerating across the globe. Optimizing biocapacity has become a key to resolve the overshoot of ecological demand in regional sustainable development. However, most literature has focused on reducing ecological footprint but ignores the potential of spatial optimization of biocapacity through regional planning of land use. Here we develop a spatial probability model and present four scenarios for optimizing biocapacity of a river basin in Northwest China. The potential of enhanced biocapacity and its effects on ecological overshoot and water consumption in the region were explored. Two scenarios with no restrictions on croplands and water use reduced the overshoot by 29 to 53%, and another two scenarios which do not allow croplands and water use to increase worsened the overshoot by 11 to 15%. More spatially flexible transition rules of land use led to higher magnitude of change after optimization. However, biocapacity optimization required a large amount of additional water resources, casting considerable pressure on the already water-scarce socio-ecological system. Our results highlight the potential for policy makers to manage/optimize regional land use which addresses ecological overshoot. Investigation on the feasibility of such spatial optimization complies with the forward-looking policies for sustainable development and deserves further attention.
生态超载在全球范围内加速。优化生物承载力已成为解决区域可持续发展中生态需求超载的关键。然而，大多数文献都侧重于减少生态足迹，但忽略了通过土地利用区域规划来优化生物承载力的空间潜力。在这里，我们开发了一个空间概率模型，并提出了中国西北地区一个流域优化生物承载力的四个方案。探讨了增强生物承载力的潜力及其对区域生态超载和耗水量的影响。两个不限制耕地和用水量的方案将超载减少了 29%至 53%，而另外两个不允许耕地和用水量增加的方案则使超载增加了 11%至 15%。土地利用更具空间灵活性的过渡规则导致优化后变化幅度更大。然而，生物承载力优化需要大量额外的水资源，这给本已缺水的社会生态系统带来了巨大压力。我们的研究结果强调了政策制定者管理/优化区域土地利用以解决生态超载问题的潜力。调查这种空间优化的可行性符合可持续发展的前瞻性政策，值得进一步关注。
