预测未来的生命年数、健康状况和功能能力：一款针对老年人的健康生活计算器。
Predicting Future Years of Life, Health, and Functional Ability: A Healthy Life Calculator for Older Adults.
作者信息
Diehr Paula, Diehr Michael, Arnold Alice, Yee Laura M, Odden Michelle C, Hirsch Calvin H, Thielke Stephen, Psaty Bruce M, Johnson W Craig, Kizer Md Jorge R, Newman Anne
机构信息
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
California State University San Marcos, San Marcos, CA, USA.
出版信息
Gerontol Geriatr Med. 2015 Oct 8;1:2333721415605989. doi: 10.1177/2333721415605989. eCollection 2015 Jan-Dec.
To create personalized estimates of future health and ability status for older adults. Data came from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a large longitudinal study. Outcomes included years of life, years of healthy life (based on self-rated health), years of able life (based on activities of daily living), and years of healthy and able life. We developed regression estimates using the demographic and health characteristics that best predicted the four outcomes. Internal and external validity were assessed. A prediction equation based on 11 variables accounted for about 40% of the variability for each outcome. Internal validity was excellent, and external validity was satisfactory. The resulting CHS Healthy Life Calculator (CHSHLC) is available at http://healthylifecalculator.org. CHSHLC provides a well-documented estimate of future years of healthy and able life for older adults, who may use it in planning for the future.
为老年人群创建个性化的未来健康和能力状况评估。数据来源于心血管健康研究（CHS），这是一项大型纵向研究。研究结果包括寿命年数、健康寿命年数（基于自我健康评价）、自理寿命年数（基于日常生活活动）以及健康且自理寿命年数。我们利用最能预测这四项结果的人口统计学和健康特征开发了回归估计值。评估了内部效度和外部效度。基于11个变量的预测方程解释了每个结果约40%的变异性。内部效度极佳，外部效度令人满意。由此产生的CHS健康寿命计算器（CHSHLC）可在http://healthylifecalculator.org获取。CHSHLC为老年人提供了一份有充分记录的未来健康且自理寿命年数的评估，老年人可将其用于未来规划。
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