Dykacz J M, Hennessey J C
Division of Disability Program Information and Studies, Office of Disability, Social Security Administration.
Soc Secur Bull. 1989 Sep;52(9):42-66.
This study followed a 1972 cohort of newly entitled beneficiaries from January 1, 1981, when they left the Disability Insurance program because of a recovery, to June 1986. This recovery group represents about 11 percent of the cohort of disabled-worker beneficiaries entitled in 1972. Three outcomes or next events were of specific interest: Return to the DI program, death, and attaining age 62 (considered retirement for the purposes of this study). The tendency toward reentitlement and the tendency toward death were modeled and then combined with retirement age to project the percentages of recovered beneficiaries who end the postrecovery period by reentitlement, death, or retirement. About 43 percent of these recovered beneficiaries are expected to become reentitled some time after leaving the program, and 52 percent are expected to reach retirement age before dying or becoming reentitled. Of the 43 percent projected too return to the program, 23 percent are expected to become reentitled within the first 5 years of recovery. The tendency to return to the DI program drops sharply at the fifth year of the postrecovery period. There may be program-based reasons for this pattern. The Social Security Amendments of 1980 may provide incentives to return to the DI program within 5 years. When covariates were examined, the covariate PIA had a strong effect on the reentitlement tendency. For those in the high PIA group ($500 or more), it is projected that 65 percent will return to the DI program. This projection is considerably higher than the 34 percent projection for those in the low PIA group (less than $500). Projected median time to reentitlement is quite different for the two PIA groups. The median time to reentitlement is 10 years for the low PIA group and only 3 years for the high PIA group. The PIA was also important in modeling the death tendency as the next event in the postrecovery period. For those in the low PIA group, death is the next event projected for 3 percent of the individuals; in the high PIA group, the projected proportion is 11 percent. It is suspected that the PIA may be acting as a proxy for the severity of the disabling condition, but this hypothesis cannot be tested with the available data. These descriptions of the reentitlement and death tendencies and the project percentages provide a global picture of the DI program reentitlement process. Further research will continue by comparing this pre-1980's cohort with a later cohort and studying the causal mechanisms underlying the recovery and reentitlement processes.
本研究追踪了1972年那一批新获得资格的受益人群体，从1981年1月1日他们因康复而离开残疾保险计划开始，直至1986年6月。这个康复群体约占1972年获得资格的残疾工人受益人群体的11%。有三个特定的结果或后续事件备受关注：重返残疾保险计划、死亡以及达到62岁（为本研究目的视为退休）。对重新获得资格的倾向和死亡倾向进行了建模，然后与退休年龄相结合，以预测康复受益人在康复后阶段因重新获得资格、死亡或退休而结束该阶段的百分比。预计这些康复受益人中约43%在离开该计划后的某个时间会重新获得资格，52%预计在死亡或重新获得资格之前达到退休年龄。在预计会重返该计划的43%中，预计23%会在康复后的头5年内重新获得资格。在康复后阶段的第5年，重返残疾保险计划的倾向急剧下降。这种模式可能有基于计划的原因。1980年的《社会保障修正案》可能为在5年内重返残疾保险计划提供了激励。在检查协变量时，协变量“可计养恤金收入”（PIA）对重新获得资格的倾向有很大影响。对于高PIA组（500美元或以上）的人，预计65%会重返残疾保险计划。这一预测远高于低PIA组（低于500美元）34%的预测。两个PIA组重新获得资格的预计中位时间差异很大。低PIA组重新获得资格的中位时间是10年，而高PIA组仅为3年。PIA在将死亡倾向建模为康复后阶段的下一个事件时也很重要。对于低PIA组的人，预计3%的人接下来的事件是死亡；在高PIA组，预计比例为11%。有人怀疑PIA可能是残疾状况严重程度的一个替代指标，但这一假设无法用现有数据进行检验。这些对重新获得资格和死亡倾向以及预测百分比的描述提供了残疾保险计划重新获得资格过程的总体情况。通过将这个20世纪80年代以前的群体与后来的群体进行比较，并研究康复和重新获得资格过程背后的因果机制，将继续进行进一步的研究。
