Ba Gen, Wu Qi-Jun, Chen Yan-Ling, Huang Yan-Hong, Gong Ting-Ting
Department of Orthopaedics, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Oncotarget. 2017 Mar 21;8(12):18943-18948. doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.14848.
The present study sought to assess the time trends of spina bifida on the basis of cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry in 14 cities from 2006 to 2015. We calculated the prevalence of spina bifida, percent and average change of time trends, and contribution rates of each city. Poisson regression model was used to find the line of best fit for spina bifida prevalence by year, with year as a continuous independent variable. From 2006 to 2015, a total of 2,029 spina bifida cases were identified from 3,248,954 live births (6.25/10,000 live births). We observed statistically significant decreasing trend of overall time trend (11.57% each year). Chaoyang, Fuxin, and Huludao were the top three leading cities, with 14.30/10,000 live births, 9.70/10,000 live births, and 9.20/10,000 live births, respectively. Inversely, the bottom three cities with lowest prevalence were Anshan (2.64/10,000 live births), Dandong (3.43/10,000 live births), and Dalian (3.45/10,000 live births). Of note, we observed significant decreasing trends in over half of these cities (n = 8). In addition, the decreasing trend of overall time trend could be mainly attributed to cities of Shenyang, Fushun, and Jinzhou which accounted for nearly one third. In summary, our study suggested a decreasing time trend of spina bifida during the past decade in the Liaoning province. The findings of this study provide evidence that the nationwide folic acid supplement program has been an effective strategy to prevent spina bifida.
本研究旨在根据辽宁省出生缺陷登记处2006年至2015年在14个城市所识别的病例，评估脊柱裂的时间趋势。我们计算了脊柱裂的患病率、时间趋势的百分比和平均变化以及每个城市的贡献率。采用泊松回归模型，以年份作为连续自变量，找出脊柱裂患病率的最佳拟合线。2006年至2015年，在3,248,954例活产中，共识别出2,029例脊柱裂病例（每10,000例活产中有6.25例）。我们观察到总体时间趋势有统计学意义的下降趋势（每年下降11.57%）。朝阳、阜新和葫芦岛是排名前三的主要城市，分别为每10,000例活产中有14.30例、9.70例和9.20例。相反，患病率最低的三个城市是鞍山（每10,000例活产中有2.64例）、丹东（每10,000例活产中有3.43例）和大连（每10,000例活产中有3.45例）。值得注意的是，我们观察到超过一半的这些城市（n = 8）有显著下降趋势。此外，总体时间趋势的下降趋势主要可归因于沈阳、抚顺和锦州这几个城市，它们占了近三分之一。总之，我们的研究表明辽宁省在过去十年中脊柱裂的时间趋势呈下降。本研究结果提供了证据，表明全国性的叶酸补充计划是预防脊柱裂的有效策略。
