Lago-Peñas Carlos, Fernández-Villarino María A, González-García Iván, Sánchez-Fernández Patricio, Sampaio Jaime
Faculty of Education and Sport Sciences, University of Vigo, Spain.
GEN. University of Vigo, Spain.
J Hum Kinet. 2016 Apr 13;50:195-202. doi: 10.1515/hukin-2015-0156. eCollection 2016 Apr 1.
The aim of the current study was (i) to identify how important was a good season start in relation to elite handball teams' performance, and (ii) to examine if this impact was related to the clubs' financial budget. The match performances and annual budgets of all teams were collected from the Spanish Professional Handball League during ten seasons. The dependent variable was the difference between the ranking of each team in accordance to the annual budget and the ranking of each team at the end of the season. A k-means cluster analysis classified the clubs according to their budget as High Range Budget Clubs (HRBC), Upper-Mid Range Budget Clubs (UMRBC), Lower-Mid Range Budget Clubs (LMRBC) and Low Range Budget Clubs (LRBC). Data were examined through linear regression models. Overall, the results suggested that the better the team performance at the beginning of the season, the better the ranking at the end of the season. Each position in the ranking above expected in accordance to the budget of the teams in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 improved by 0.47, 0.50 or 0.49, respectively, in the ranking at the end of the season (p<0.05). However, the impact of the effect depended on the clubs' annual budget. For UMRBC, LMRBC and LRBC a good start to the season had a positive effect on the final outcome (p<0.05). Nevertheless, for HRBC, a good or a bad start of the season did not explain their final position. These variables can be used to develop accurate models to estimate final rankings. UMRBC, LMRBC and LRBC can benefit from fine-tuning preseason planning in order to accelerate the acquisition of optimal performances.
(i)确定良好的赛季开局对于精英手球队的表现有多重要;(ii)研究这种影响是否与俱乐部的财务预算有关。在十个赛季中,收集了西班牙职业手球联赛中所有球队的比赛表现和年度预算。因变量是各球队按照年度预算的排名与赛季末排名之间的差异。采用k均值聚类分析,根据预算将俱乐部分为高预算俱乐部(HRBC)、中上预算俱乐部(UMRBC)、中下预算俱乐部(LMRBC)和低预算俱乐部(LRBC)。通过线性回归模型对数据进行检验。总体而言,结果表明赛季初球队表现越好,赛季末排名越高。在第3、4或5轮中,排名高于根据球队预算预期的每个名次,在赛季末的排名分别提高0.47、0.50或0.49(p<0.05)。然而,这种影响取决于俱乐部的年度预算。对于UMRBC、LMRBC和LRBC来说,赛季良好的开局对最终结果有积极影响(p<0.05)。然而,对于HRBC来说,赛季的好开局或坏开局并不能解释他们的最终排名。这些变量可用于开发准确的模型来估计最终排名。UMRBC、LMRBC和LRBC可以从微调季前计划中受益,以加速获得最佳表现。