He Lingling, Zhang Shuan, Liu Xiaoli, Jiang Yuyong, Wang Xianbo, Yang Zhiyun
Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital and Collaborative Innovation Center of Infectious Diseases, Capital Medical University, Chaoyang, Beijing 100015, China.
J Diabetes Res. 2017;2017:3819502. doi: 10.1155/2017/3819502. Epub 2017 Jan 5.
. To establish a new score model to predict risk of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus. . This was a retrospective study of 147 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus who came to Beijing Ditan Hospital between October 2008 and June 2013. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain the independent factors associated with death risk. A new score model was devised according to these factors. . A prediction score model composed of HbA1c, NLR, age, and CTP class was devised, which ranged from 0 to 7. AUROC of the score was 0.853 ( < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.791-0.915). Scores 0-2, 3-4, and 5-7 identified patients as low-, medium-, and high-risk categories. The cumulative survival rate was 93.6%, 83.0%, and 74.5% in the low-risk group in 1, 2, and 3 years, while it was 64.0%, 46.0%, and 26.0% in the medium-risk group, whereas it was 24.0%, 12.0%, and 6.0% in the high-risk group, respectively. The cumulative survival rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than that in the medium-risk group and high-risk group ( < 0.001). . The HbA1c-based score model can be used to predict death risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus.
建立一种新的评分模型以预测肝细胞癌合并2型糖尿病患者的死亡风险。本研究对2008年10月至2013年6月期间在北京地坛医院就诊的147例肝细胞癌合并2型糖尿病患者进行回顾性研究。采用单因素和多因素逻辑回归分析以获得与死亡风险相关的独立因素。根据这些因素设计了一种新的评分模型。设计了一种由糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、年龄和Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)分级组成的预测评分模型,其范围为0至7分。该评分的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)为0.853(P<0.001,95%可信区间:0.791-0.915)。评分0-2分、3-4分和5-7分分别将患者分为低、中、高风险类别。低风险组1年、2年和3年的累积生存率分别为93.6%、83.0%和74.5%,中风险组分别为64.0%、46.0%和26.0%,高风险组分别为24.0%、12.0%和6.0%。低风险组的累积生存率显著高于中风险组和高风险组(P<0.001)。基于HbA1c的评分模型可用于预测肝细胞癌合并2型糖尿病患者的死亡风险。