Volatility and change in chronic pain severity predict outcomes of treatment for prescription opioid addiction.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NLX) can be used to manage prescription opioid addiction among persons with chronic pain, but post-treatment relapse is common and difficult to predict. This study estimated whether changes in pain over time and pain volatility during BUP-NLX maintenance would predict opioid use during the taper BUP-NLX taper.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a multi-site clinical trial for prescription opioid addiction, using data obtained during a 12-week BUP-NLX stabilization and 4-week BUP-NLX taper.

SETTING

Community clinics affiliated with a national clinical trials network in 10 US cities.

PARTICIPANTS

Subjects with chronic pain who entered the BUP-NLX taper phase (n = 125) with enrollment occurring from June 2006 to July 2009 (52% male, 88% Caucasian, 31% married).

MEASUREMENTS

Outcomes were weekly biologically verified and self-reported opioid use from the 4-week taper phase. Predictors were estimates of baseline severity, rate of change and volatility in pain from weekly self-reports during the 12-week maintenance phase.

FINDINGS

Controlling for baseline pain and treatment condition, increased pain [odds ratio (OR) = 2.38, P = 0.02] and greater pain volatility (OR = 2.43, P = 0.04) predicted greater odds of positive opioid urine screen during BUP-NLX taper. Increased pain (IRR = 1.40, P = 0.04) and greater pain volatility [incidence-rate ratio (IRR) = 1.66, P = 0.009] also predicted greater frequency of self-reported opioid use.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with chronic pain receiving out-patient treatment with buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NLX) for prescription opioid addiction have an elevated risk for opioid use when tapering off maintenance treatment. Those with relative persistence in pain over time and greater volatility in pain during treatment are less likely to sustain abstinence during BUP-NLX taper.