Agusto Folashade B, ELmojtaba Ibrahim M
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, Kansas, United States of America.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, P.O.Box 36, Al Khodh, Oman.
PLoS One. 2017 Feb 6;12(2):e0171102. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171102. eCollection 2017.
In this paper, a deterministic model involving the transmission dynamics of malaria/visceral leishmaniasis co-infection is presented and studied. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategies for curtailing the spread of the diseases using the use of personal protection, indoor residual spraying and culling of infected reservoirs as the system control variables. Various combination strategies were examined so as to investigate the impact of the controls on the spread of the disease. And we investigated the most cost-effective strategy of all the control strategies using three approaches, the infection averted ratio (IAR), the average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Our results show that the implementation of the strategy combining all the time dependent control variables is the most cost-effective control strategy. This result is further emphasized by using the results obtained from the cost objective functional, the ACER, and the ICER.
本文提出并研究了一个涉及疟疾/内脏利什曼病共感染传播动力学的确定性模型。然后应用最优控制理论,以个人防护、室内滞留喷洒和扑杀受感染宿主作为系统控制变量,研究遏制疾病传播的最优策略。研究了各种组合策略,以考察这些控制措施对疾病传播的影响。我们使用三种方法,即感染避免率(IAR)、平均成本效益率(ACER)和增量成本效益率(ICER),研究了所有控制策略中最具成本效益的策略。我们的结果表明,实施结合所有随时间变化的控制变量的策略是最具成本效益的控制策略。通过成本目标函数、ACER和ICER得到的结果进一步强调了这一结果。