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两株结核-艾滋病毒/艾滋病合并感染模型的最优控制

Optimal control of a two-strain tuberculosis-HIV/AIDS co-infection model.

作者信息

Agusto F B, Adekunle A I

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN, USA.

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria.

出版信息

Biosystems. 2014 May;119:20-44. doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2014.03.006. Epub 2014 Apr 2.

Abstract

Tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB). The risk for TB infection greatly increases with HIV infection; TB disease occurs in 7-10% of patients with HIV infection each year, increasing the potential for transmission of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. In this paper a deterministic model is presented and studied for the transmission of TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the spread of the disease using treatment of infected individuals with TB as the system control variables. Various combination strategies were examined so as to investigate the impact of the controls on the spread of the disease. And incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to investigate the cost effectiveness of all the control strategies. Our results show that the implementation of the combination strategy involving the prevention of treatment failure in drug-sensitive TB infectious individuals and the treatment of individuals with drug-resistant TB is the most cost-effective control strategy. Similar results were obtained with different objective functionals involving the minimization of the number of individuals with drug-sensitive TB-only and drug-resistant TB-only with the efforts involved in applying the control.

摘要

结核病是一种由结核分枝杆菌引起的细菌性疾病。感染结核病的风险会随着感染艾滋病毒而大幅增加;每年有7%至10%的艾滋病毒感染者会患上结核病,这增加了耐药结核分枝杆菌菌株传播的可能性。本文提出并研究了一个关于结核-艾滋病毒/艾滋病合并感染传播的确定性模型。然后应用最优控制理论,以对感染个体进行结核病治疗作为系统控制变量,研究控制疾病传播的最优策略。研究了各种组合策略,以调查这些控制措施对疾病传播的影响。并使用增量成本效益比(ICER)来研究所有控制策略的成本效益。我们的结果表明,实施包括预防药物敏感型结核病感染个体治疗失败以及治疗耐药结核病个体在内的组合策略是最具成本效益的控制策略。对于不同的目标泛函,包括最小化仅患有药物敏感型结核病和仅患有耐药结核病个体的数量以及应用控制措施所涉及的努力,也得到了类似的结果。

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