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部分理性投资者之间不断演变的关系网络。

The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors.

作者信息

DeLellis Pietro, DiMeglio Anna, Garofalo Franco, Lo Iudice Francesco

机构信息

Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2017 Feb 14;12(2):e0171891. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171891. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents' behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors.

摘要

为克服新古典经济学的局限性,研究人员利用统计物理学工具构建新理论。其思路是从金融市场微观组成部分(即投资者)的相互作用中阐明金融市场的宏观特征。在这个框架中,金融主体的模型与其相互作用的模型是分开的。相反,在这里我们探讨让相互作用拓扑结构从主体行为模型中浮现的可能性。然后,我们研究这种新兴的关系网络如何影响整体市场动态。为此,我们利用复杂系统分析和非线性动力学工具,并将相互影响网络建模为描述边演化的动态系统的输出。在这项工作中,边演化的驱动因素是可能相互关联的主体之间的相对声誉。声誉的建立方式因投资者的理性程度而异。边连续激活或停用会导致领导者和特殊网络结构的出现,这是真实影响网络的典型特征。通过在部分理性投资者构成的选定场景中进行广泛的数值模拟,研究了其对市场动态的后续影响。

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