Goharinezhad Salime, Maleki Mohammadreza, Baradaran Hamid Reza, Ravaghi Hamid
Ph.D Candidate, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, & Research Center for Health Services Management, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Professor, Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, & Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2016 Sep 18;30:416. eCollection 2016.
The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.
全球60岁及以上人口的增长速度快于其他年龄组。在未来几十年里，伊朗将经历人口老龄化的急剧增长，这将给医疗保健系统带来新的挑战。由于提供高质量的老年护理服务将是政策制定者的主要关注点，因此出现了这样一个问题：在未来10年应该组织哪些类型的老年护理服务？本方案旨在为伊朗未来的老年护理制定一系列情景。在本研究中，采用直观逻辑方法和全球商业网络（GBN）模型来制定伊朗老年护理的情景。从视角来看，这种方法中的情景是规范性的，在方法上是定性的，在构建情景过程中是演绎性的。GBN模型的三个阶段如下：1）定位：确定战略层面、利益相关者、参与者和时间范围；2）探索：确定驱动力和关键不确定性；3）综合：定义情景逻辑并构建情景故事线。目前，前两个阶段已经完成，结果将于2016年年中公布。本研究为未来在为老年人提供护理方面采取适当行动提供了一个全面的框架。此外，政策制定者应该为老年人明确并提供全方位的服务，在这样做的过程中，本研究的情景和主要发现可能会有宝贵的帮助。
