Jafari H, Sheikhbardsiri H, Mohammadi M
Health, Work and Environment Research Center, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Disasters and Emergencies Management Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Ann Burns Fire Disasters. 2021 Sep 30;34(3):283-289.
Fire disasters are one of the most common technological disasters in Iran. These disasters have killed many people and resulted in significant economic loss. The "Plasco" building fire in 2017 is one example of these catastrophic disasters, when most of Iran was affected by its tragic news. Regarding the increasing number of risk factors for fire disasters, we aimed to study future scenarios for such disasters in the country. The present study is a futuristic study with an exploratory approach that uses an intuitive logic scenario development approach. We used document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and the Delphi technique to identify driving forces and develop scenario stories, and finally those scenario stories were validated. In the document analysis phase, 22 documents were identified and analysed. After collecting information related to documents and analysing ten interviews, 41 of the driving forces were identified. By drawing the scenario matrix, four alternative scenarios for the future of fire disasters were developed. Two dimensions for scenario development were the correct application of fire prevention laws and access to driving technologies. Policymakers can concentrate on these key factors for best planning in the mitigation of fire disasters. In addition, studying scenarios can help managers and officials to better develop strategic plans for disaster risk reduction.
火灾是伊朗最常见的技术灾害之一。这些灾害已造成许多人死亡，并导致重大经济损失。2017年的“普拉斯科”大楼火灾就是这些灾难性事件的一个例子，当时伊朗大部分地区都受到了这一悲惨消息的影响。鉴于火灾灾害风险因素的不断增加，我们旨在研究该国此类灾害的未来情景。本研究是一项采用探索性方法的前瞻性研究，使用直观逻辑情景开发方法。我们采用文献分析、半结构化访谈和德尔菲技术来识别驱动因素并编写情景故事，最后对这些情景故事进行了验证。在文献分析阶段，识别并分析了22份文献。在收集与文献相关的信息并分析了十次访谈后，确定了41个驱动因素。通过绘制情景矩阵，为火灾灾害的未来制定了四种备选情景。情景开发的两个维度是正确应用防火法律和获取驱动技术。政策制定者可以专注于这些关键因素，以制定减轻火灾灾害的最佳规划。此外，研究情景有助于管理人员和官员更好地制定减少灾害风险的战略计划。
