Williams Nicholas E, Carrico Amanda
, 397 UCB, Boulder, CO, 90309, USA.
Ambio. 2017 Sep;46(5):532-542. doi: 10.1007/s13280-017-0904-z. Epub 2017 Feb 16.
Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers' use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers' rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.
气候变化正在加剧斯里兰卡的水资源短缺。这些变化是否会损害国家层面的粮食安全,取决于主导水稻生产的小规模农户以及支持他们的机构应对水资源可利用性变化所带来挑战的能力。通过分析家庭调查数据,本研究确定了影响水资源紧张的农户如何努力适应变化的条件以及他们所采用的策略如何影响水稻产量的家庭、机构和农业生态因素。与其他地方进行的类似研究一样,我们确定机构因素在农民的适应决策中尤为重要。值得注意的是,我们的研究发现农民使用杂交种子品种是唯一与农民水稻产量呈正相关的当地气候适应策略。这些发现为成功的农业适应相关的其他因素提供了见解,并为促进斯里兰卡植物育种和种子分发的政策提供了令人鼓舞的证据,以此作为缓冲粮食系统以应对气候变化加剧的干旱的一种手段。