Ecological and genetic basis of metapopulation persistence of the Glanville fritillary butterfly in fragmented landscapes.

Ecologists are challenged to construct models of the biological consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a metapopulation model to predict the distribution of the Glanville fritillary butterfly during 22 years across a large heterogeneous landscape with 4,415 small dry meadows. The majority (74%) of the 125 networks into which the meadows were clustered are below the extinction threshold for long-term persistence. Among the 33 networks above the threshold, spatial configuration and habitat quality rather than the pooled habitat area predict metapopulation size and persistence, but additionally allelic variation in a SNP in the gene Phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) explains 30% of variation in metapopulation size. The Pgi genotypes are associated with dispersal rate and hence with colonizations and extinctions. Associations between Pgi genotypes, population turnover and metapopulation size reflect eco-evolutionary dynamics, which may be a common feature in species inhabiting patch networks with unstable local dynamics.