Shultz James M, Shepherd J Marshall, Bagrodia Rohini, Espinel Zelde
Center for Disaster & Extreme Event Preparedness (DEEP Center); University of Miami Miller School of Medicine ; Miami, FL USA.
Atmospheric Sciences Program; University of Georgia ; Athens, GA USA.
Disaster Health. 2015 Nov 16;2(3-4):151-162. doi: 10.1080/21665044.2014.1111722. eCollection 2014 Jul-Dec.
The year 2015 is notable for the coincidence of several strong climate indicators that having bearing on the occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide. This year, 2015, is clearly on track to become the warmest on record in terms of global temperatures. During the latter half of 2015, a very strong El Niño has formed and is predicted to build impressively, perhaps rivaling the memorable El Niño of 1997/1998. Warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, coupled with a strengthening El Niño, have supported the proliferation of Western North Pacific basin typhoons and Eastern/Central North Pacific Hurricanes. Most notable among these, Hurricane Patricia formed on October 20, 2015 and experienced extremely rapid intensification to become the strongest hurricane in the history of the Western Hemisphere and then weakened just as abruptly before dissipating on October 24, 2015. Rather than an aberration, these climate patterns of 2015 represent an ongoing trend with implications for the disaster health of coastal populations worldwide.
2015年值得关注，因为多个与全球热带气旋发生和强度相关的重要气候指标同时出现。就全球气温而言，2015年显然正朝着有记录以来最热的年份发展。在2015年下半年，形成了一个非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象，预计其强度还会显著增强，可能与1997/1998年令人难忘的厄尔尼诺现象相媲美。太平洋温暖的海水温度，再加上不断增强的厄尔尼诺现象，助长了北太平洋西部海域台风和东/中太平洋飓风的大量生成。其中最引人注目的是，飓风帕特里夏于2015年10月20日形成，并迅速增强，成为西半球历史上最强的飓风，然后又同样突然地减弱，于2015年10月24日消散。2015年的这些气候模式并非异常现象，而是一种持续的趋势，对全球沿海地区居民的灾难健康状况产生影响。
