Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Jul 6;107(27):12107-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107. Epub 2010 Jun 21.
Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
尽管来自已发表文献和专家调查的初步估计表明，气候变化科学家在人为气候变化（ACC）的原则上达成了惊人的一致，但美国公众对人为原因和支持 ACC 的科学共识水平表示了极大的怀疑。对气候科学家群体本身、持不同意见的研究人员的可信度分布相对于同意的研究人员以及顶级气候专家之间的共识水平进行广泛分析尚未进行，这将为未来的 ACC 讨论提供信息。在这里，我们使用了一个由 1372 名气候研究人员及其发表的论文和引文数据组成的大型数据集，结果表明：（i）在接受调查的最积极从事该领域研究的气候研究人员中，97-98%的人支持政府间气候变化专门委员会概述的 ACC 原则；（ii）对 ACC 持怀疑态度的研究人员的相对气候专业知识和科学地位远低于确信的研究人员。
