Lin Qigen, Wang Ying, Liu Tianxue, Zhu Yingqi, Sui Qi
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Feb 21;14(2):212. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14020212.
The lack of a detailed landslide inventory makes research on the vulnerability of people to landslides highly limited. In this paper, the authors collect information on the landslides that have caused casualties in China, and established the . 100 landslide cases from 2003 to 2012 were utilized to develop an empirical relationship between the volume of a landslide event and the casualties caused by the occurrence of the event. The error bars were used to describe the uncertainty of casualties resulting from landslides and to establish a threshold curve of casualties caused by landslides in China. The threshold curve was then applied to the landslide cases occurred in 2013 and 2014. The validation results show that the estimated casualties of the threshold curve were in good agreement with the real casualties with a small deviation. Therefore, the threshold curve can be used for estimating potential casualties and landslide vulnerability, which is meaningful for emergency rescue operations after landslides occurred and for risk assessment research.
缺乏详细的滑坡清单使得关于人们对滑坡脆弱性的研究受到很大限制。在本文中,作者收集了中国境内造成人员伤亡的滑坡信息,并建立了……利用2003年至2012年的100个滑坡案例来建立滑坡事件体积与该事件发生所导致伤亡之间的经验关系。误差线用于描述滑坡造成伤亡的不确定性,并建立中国滑坡造成伤亡的阈值曲线。然后将该阈值曲线应用于2013年和2014年发生的滑坡案例。验证结果表明,阈值曲线估计的伤亡情况与实际伤亡情况吻合良好,偏差较小。因此,该阈值曲线可用于估计潜在伤亡和滑坡脆弱性,这对于滑坡发生后的应急救援行动和风险评估研究具有重要意义。