Molloy Raven, Smith Christopher L, Wozniak Abigail
Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, DC, USA.
Department of Economics, Flanner Hall, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA.
Demography. 2017 Apr;54(2):631-653. doi: 10.1007/s13524-017-0551-9.
Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.
自20世纪80年代以来，美国的州际移民一直在稳步下降，但人们对这种下降的原因知之甚少。我们表明，移民下降与同期工作变动的长期下降有关。这两种趋势都不是主要由可观察到的人口或社会经济因素导致的。相反，我们认为工作变动的减少导致了移民的减少。在确定了劳动力市场在移民下降中的作用之后，我们转向一个问题，即为什么在过去几十年里工作变动变得不那么频繁了。我们发现，包括双职工家庭的增加、中等技能工作的减少、职业执照制度以及员工保留医疗保险的需求等几种解释几乎没有得到支持。因此，这两种双重趋势的原因仍然不明，应该进一步探讨。
