Wilber Mark Q, Langwig Kate E, Kilpatrick A Marm, McCallum Hamish I, Briggs Cheryl J
Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93117.
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064.
Methods Ecol Evol. 2016 Oct;7(10):1182-1194. doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12561. Epub 2016 Apr 28.
Host parasite models are typically constructed under either a microparasite or macroparasite paradigm. However, this has long been recognized as a false dichotomy because many infectious disease agents, including most fungal pathogens, have attributes of both microparasites and macroparasites.We illustrate how Integral Projection Models (IPM)s provide a novel, elegant modeling framework to represent both types of pathogens. We build a simple host-parasite IPM that tracks both the number of susceptible and infected hosts and the distribution of parasite burdens in infected hosts.The vital rate functions necessary to build IPMs for disease dynamics share many commonalities with classic micro and macroparasite models and we discuss how these functions can be parameterized to build a host-parasite IPM. We illustrate the utility of this IPM approach by modeling the temperature-dependent epizootic dynamics of amphibian chytrid fungus in Mountain yellow-legged frogs ().The host-parasite IPM can be applied to other diseases such as facial tumor disease in Tasmanian devils and white-nose syndrome in bats. Moreover, the host-parasite IPM can be easily extended to capture more complex disease dynamics and provides an exciting new frontier in modeling wildlife disease.
宿主-寄生虫模型通常是在微寄生虫或大寄生虫范式下构建的。然而,长期以来人们一直认为这是一种错误的二分法,因为许多传染病病原体,包括大多数真菌病原体,都兼具微寄生虫和大寄生虫的特征。我们阐述了积分投影模型(IPM)如何提供一个新颖、优雅的建模框架来同时表示这两种类型的病原体。我们构建了一个简单的宿主-寄生虫IPM,它可以追踪易感宿主和感染宿主的数量以及感染宿主中寄生虫负荷的分布。构建用于疾病动态的IPM所需的生命率函数与经典的微寄生虫和大寄生虫模型有许多共同之处,我们讨论了如何对这些函数进行参数化以构建宿主-寄生虫IPM。我们通过模拟山黄腿蛙中两栖类壶菌的温度依赖性流行病动态来说明这种IPM方法的实用性。宿主-寄生虫IPM可应用于其他疾病,如袋獾的面部肿瘤病和蝙蝠的白鼻综合征。此外,宿主-寄生虫IPM可以很容易地扩展以捕捉更复杂的疾病动态,并为野生动物疾病建模提供了一个令人兴奋的新领域。