Prediction of the prognosis of liver cirrhosis in Japanese using Cox's proportional hazard model.

Data on 155 patients with liver cirrhosis were analyzed, using Cox's proportional hazard model. Twenty variables were screened, using a multiple linear regression analysis in a stepwise manner and 6 were considered to reflect the prognosis of cirrhotics. Three of the 6 variables were significantly prognostic, i.e. ascites, atrophy of the right lobe of the liver seen on liver scintigram and the concentration of serum albumin. The prognostic index (PI) for each patient was calculated by adding all the products of scores of these three variables with the corresponding coefficient: PI = 0.895 X ascites (absent = 0, present = 1) + 0.983 X atrophy of right lobe of the liver on the liver scintigram (absent = 0, present = 1) + (-0.561) X serum albumin (g/dl). According to the PI, the subjects were separated into three groups; group 1: PI less than -1.9, group 2: -1.9 less than or equal to PI less than -0.6, group 3: PI greater than or equal to -0.6. The global 5- and 10-year survival rates of each group were 80% and 65% in group 1, 50% and 30% in group 2 and 12% and 0% in group 3, respectively. Four of the 14 deaths in group 1, 8 of 47 in groups 2 and 10 of 24 in group 3 were caused by hepatocellular carcinoma. Our observations suggest that advanced stage cases of cirrhosis are at a high risk concerning development of hepatocellular carcinoma.