State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, 02115, USA.
Sci Rep. 2017 Mar 7;7:43909. doi: 10.1038/srep43909.
The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.
在过去几十年中，极端热浪事件的频率和强度有所增加，并且在人为气候变化的影响下，未来这种情况很可能会继续增加。暴露是指存在于危险区域内的人、财产、系统或其他元素，因此可能会遭受潜在的损失。暴露于极端高温及其变化不仅取决于气候变化，还取决于人口变化。在这里，我们分析了三种温室气体排放和社会经济增长情景的输出结果，以估算考虑到气候和人口因素的未来暴露变化。我们发现，对于较高排放情景（RCP8.5-SSP3），到 2100 年，全球暴露量将增加近 30 倍。非洲的平均暴露量比历史上高出 118 多倍，而欧洲的暴露量仅增加了四倍。重要的是，与高排放情景下的暴露量相比，在没有气候变化的情况下，全球和所有地理区域的暴露量将减少 75-95%。在排放较低的 RCP4.5-SSP2 和 RCP2.6-SSP1 情景下，全球暴露量分别减少 65%和 85%，这突出了缓解努力在减少极端高温暴露方面的效果。
