Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India.
Atmospheric Science Research Laboratory, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur, Tamilnadu, India.
Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 7;10(1):16675. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73245-3.
Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.
多模式平均值的 18 个 CMIP5 模型对未来夏季热应激的预测显示，在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 排放情景下，印度的热应激水平将前所未有地上升。研究发现，印度沿海地区面临更多的极端炎热天气，处于极度危险到危险类别的天数增加，发生的概率也在增加，这对热应激的影响更大。未来的温度变化、温暖天数持续时间和强度的增加以及大尺度环流的调制似乎都与印度不断上升的热应激水平有关。到本世纪末，印度的工作效率预计将下降 30%至 40%，因为热应激水平升高给该国政策制定者带来了巨大挑战，需要他们设计安全机制，保护在持续极端炎热天气条件下工作的人们。
