Dale V, Heather N, Adamson S, Coulton S, Copello A, Godfrey C, Hodgson R, Orford J, Raistrick D, Tober G
Department of Health Sciences, University of York, UK.
Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Addict Behav. 2017 Aug;71:61-67. doi: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2017.02.023. Epub 2017 Feb 15.
To explore client characteristics that predict drinking outcomes using data from the UK Alcohol Treatment Trial (UKATT).
Multiple linear regression was used to determine if there were any characteristics, measured before the start of treatment, that could predict drinking outcomes at three and 12months, as measured by percent day abstinent (PDA) and drinks per drinking day (DDD) over the preceding 90days.
Lower baseline DDD score and greater confidence to resist drinking predicted lower DDD at both three and twelve months following entry to treatment. In addition to baseline PDA and having greater confidence to resist heavy drinking, female gender, aiming for abstinence, more satisfaction with family life and a social network that included less support for drinking were predictors of percent days abstinent.
Overall the strongest and most consistent predictors of outcome were confidence to avoid heavy drinking and social support for drinking. More predictors were identified for percent of days abstinent than for drinks per drinking day. For percent of days abstinent, a number of client characteristics at baseline consistently predicted outcome at both month three and month twelve.
利用英国酒精治疗试验（UKATT）的数据，探索能够预测饮酒结果的客户特征。
采用多元线性回归来确定在治疗开始前测量的任何特征是否能够预测治疗后3个月和12个月的饮酒结果，饮酒结果通过前90天的每日戒酒率（PDA）和每日饮酒量（DDD）来衡量。
较低的基线DDD得分以及更高的戒酒信心预示着进入治疗后3个月和12个月时较低的DDD。除了基线PDA和更高的抵制大量饮酒的信心外，女性、目标是戒酒、对家庭生活更满意以及社交网络中对饮酒的支持较少是每日戒酒率的预测因素。
总体而言，最有力且最一致的结果预测因素是避免大量饮酒的信心和对饮酒的社会支持。与每日饮酒量相比，确定了更多每日戒酒率的预测因素。对于每日戒酒率，基线时的一些客户特征在3个月和12个月时都能持续预测结果。
