伊朗克尔曼省巴姆地区白蛉种群对外界温度变化的时间动态。

Temporal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Flies Population in Response to Ambient Temperature Variation, Bam, Kerman Province of Iran.

机构信息

Department of Climatology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Climatology, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran.

出版信息

Ann Glob Health. 2016 Sep-Oct;82(5):824-831. doi: 10.1016/j.aogh.2016.07.009.

DOI:10.1016/j.aogh.2016.07.009

PMID:28283136

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Variations in climate condition may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and its agents such as sand flies and reservoir in the Bam Kerman the dry region of Iran.

OBJECTIVES

In this study we intend to examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the phlebotomine mosquito as a function of ambient temperature in Bam, Kerman one of the main leshmaniasis prevalence area in Iran.

METHODS

The MODIS land surface temperature product (LST; MODIS/Terra LST/E Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG [MOD11C3]) and land-based climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Monthly caught mosquitoes in Bam, Kerman, were used as a dependent variable. The temporal associations were first investigated by inspection of scatterplots and single-variable regression analysis. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to reveal the association between ambient temperature and the monthly mosquito abundance at a 95% confidence level (P < 0.05).

FINDINGS

The findings indicated that the monthly variation of 0-10 cm of soil depth temperature is the main driver of phlebotomine mosquito temporal dynamics. The developed multivariate model also indicated that the ambient temperature variation was responsible for >0.80 of temporal dynamics of phlebotomine mosquitos in Bam.

摘要

背景

气候条件的变化可能改变了巴姆克尔曼伊朗干旱地区的动物源性皮肤利什曼病（ZCL）及其媒介（如沙蝇和宿主）的动态。

目的

本研究旨在检查伊朗主要利什曼病流行地区之一巴姆的环境温度对嗜人按蚊季节性和年际动态的影响。

方法

将 MODIS 地表温度产品（LST；MODIS/Terra LST/E 每月 L3 全球 0.05 度 CMG [MOD11C3]）和基于地面的气候数据用作解释变量。将巴姆每月捕获的蚊子作为因变量。首先通过检查散点图和单变量回归分析来研究时间关联。在 95%置信水平（P < 0.05）下，开发了一个多元线性回归模型来揭示环境温度与每月蚊子丰度之间的关联。