Climatology, Lorestan University, Lorestan, IR.
Climatology, Tehran University, Tehran, IR.
Ann Glob Health. 2019 Apr 23;85(1):60. doi: 10.5334/aogh.30.
Phlebotomine (Ph.) sand flies are the vectors of different types of leishmaniasis and arboviruses to humans. Variations in climate conditions could lead to changes in the dynamics of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and its agents, such as Ph. sand flies and reservoirs.
The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial relationship among climatic factors and phlebotomine sand flies in abundance in Bushehr Province of Iran.
In this study, six village sites in Bushehr Province were selected for collecting Ph. sand flies. All-night landing catches of Ph. sand flies occurred between January 15, 2016, and December 15, 2016. Two types of climatic data were used: satellite-based data included daytime and nighttime land surface temperature and the normalized deference vegetation index, and station-based data included annual rainfall and annual mean air temperature and solar radiation (W/M2). Spatial correlation analysis and multivariate ordinary least square regression was used to detect the spatial association between caught Ph. sand flies and climatic factors in a 0.95 confidence level (p = 0.05).
The results of the spatial correlation matrix indicated thermal factors, such as mean and maximum air temperature, instantaneous daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures, and radiation, show a direct and significant spatial correlation with the number of sand flies caught. The annual frequency of sand flies in the region showed the highest direct spatial relationship with the annual maximum air temperature (r = 0.91). Environmental moisture factors, such as precipitation and the vegetation index of the region, have spatial correlations of 0.63 and 0.44 with the frequency of the annual caught sand flies, which are significant at the confidence level of 0.95. The results of the multivariable model for estimating the frequency of the caught sand flies indicate environmental estimators, including mean air temperature, rainfall, radiation, and vegetation index, in a linear estimation model can explain the 0.85 spatial variation of the caught sand flies population.This study aimed to detect spatial correlations between the sand fly population and climatic factors. The results showed climatic factors were the most important controllers of the sand fly population in the interannual scale. If sand fly control programs are conducted in accordance with the climatic conditions of the area, the population of this carrier in Bushehr Province can be controlled and the incidence of disease significantly reduced.
白蛉（Phlebotomine）沙蝇是不同类型利什曼病和虫媒病毒向人类传播的媒介。气候条件的变化可能导致动物源性皮肤利什曼病（ZCL）及其媒介白蛉沙蝇和宿主的动态发生变化。
本研究旨在分析伊朗布什尔省气候因素与白蛉沙蝇丰度之间的空间关系。
本研究在布什尔省选择了六个村庄进行采集白蛉沙蝇。2016 年 1 月 15 日至 12 月 15 日期间，进行了整夜的白蛉沙蝇夜间着陆捕捉。使用了两种类型的气候数据：基于卫星的数据包括白天和夜间地表温度和归一化差异植被指数，以及基于气象站的数据包括年降雨量、年平均气温和太阳辐射（W/M2）。在 0.95 置信水平（p=0.05）下，使用空间相关分析和多元普通最小二乘回归检测白蛉沙蝇与气候因素之间的空间关联。
空间相关矩阵的结果表明，热因素，如平均和最高空气温度、瞬时白天和夜间地表温度以及辐射，与捕获的沙蝇数量存在直接显著的空间相关性。该地区沙蝇的年频率与年最高空气温度表现出最高的直接空间关系（r=0.91）。该地区的环境湿度因素，如降水和植被指数，与年捕获沙蝇的频率具有 0.63 和 0.44 的空间相关性，在 0.95 的置信水平上具有显著意义。估计捕获沙蝇频率的多元模型结果表明，包括平均空气温度、降雨量、辐射和植被指数在内的环境估算值可以在线性估计模型中解释捕获沙蝇种群的 0.85 空间变化。本研究旨在检测沙蝇种群与气候因素之间的空间相关性。结果表明，气候因素是影响该省沙蝇种群的最重要因素。如果按照该地区的气候条件进行沙蝇控制计划，该地区的沙蝇种群数量可以得到控制，疾病的发病率可以显著降低。
