DeWaard Jack, Ha Jasmine Trang, Raymer James, Wiśniowski Arkadiusz
Department of Sociology, Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota. 909 Social Sciences, 267 19 Ave. South, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA.
Department of Sociology, Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota.
Eur J Popul. 2017 Feb;33(1):33-53. doi: 10.1007/s10680-016-9383-3. Epub 2016 Jul 12.
European Union (EU) enlargements in 2004 and 2007 were accompanied by increased migration from new-accession to established-member (EU-15) countries. The impacts of these flows depend, in part, on the amount of time that persons from the former countries live in the latter over the life course. In this paper, we develop period estimates of duration expectancy in EU-15 countries among persons from new-accession countries. Using a newly developed set of harmonised Bayesian estimates of migration flows each year from 2002 to 2008 from the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) Project, we exploit period age patterns of country-to-country migration and mortality to summarize the average number of years that persons from new-accession countries could be expected to live in EU-15 countries over the life course. In general, the results show that the amount of time that persons from new-accession countries could be expected to live in the EU-15 nearly doubled after 2004.
2004年和2007年欧盟的扩大伴随着从新加入成员国到原有成员国（欧盟15国）移民的增加。这些移民潮的影响部分取决于来自前成员国的人在其一生中在后者国家生活的时间长短。在本文中，我们对来自新加入成员国的人在欧盟15国的预期居住时长进行了时期估计。利用欧洲移民综合模型（IMEM）项目新开发的一套2002年至2008年每年移民流动的统一贝叶斯估计值，我们利用国家间移民和死亡率的时期年龄模式，总结出预期来自新加入成员国的人在其一生中在欧盟15国生活的平均年数。总体而言，结果表明，2004年之后，来自新加入成员国的人预期在欧盟15国生活的时间几乎翻了一番。
