Wiśniowski Arkadiusz, Forster Jonathan J, Smith Peter W F, Bijak Jakub, Raymer James
University of Manchester UK; University of Southampton UK.
University of Southampton UK.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2016 Oct;179(4):1007-1024. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12177. Epub 2016 Jan 22.
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.
移民的年龄和性别模式对于理解人口变化的驱动因素以及移民群体的异质性至关重要。我们开发了一种分层贝叶斯模型，以估计2002年至2008年期间欧盟和欧洲自由贸易协会国际移民的此类模式，这一时期成员国数量从19个增加到31个。我们的模型纠正了现有数据中的不足和不一致之处，并估计了缺失的模式。然后，年龄和性别分布的后验分布与原籍国-目的地流动矩阵相结合，生成一个综合数据库，其中包含移民流动和其他模型参数的不确定性度量。
