Wanzel Stella K, Schultze Thomas, Schulz-Hardt Stefan
Department of Economic and Social Psychology, Georg-August University Göttingen.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2017 Oct;43(10):1669-1675. doi: 10.1037/xlm0000396. Epub 2017 Mar 13.
When advice comes from interdependent sources (e.g., from advisors who use the same database), less information should be gained as compared to independent advice. On the other hand, since individuals strive for consistency, they should be more confident in consistent compared to conflicting advice, and interdependent advice should be more consistent than independent advice. In a study investigating the differential effects of interdependent versus independent advice on a judge's accuracy and confidence (Yaniv, Choshen-Hillel, & Milyavsky, 2009), advice interdependence was confounded with another variable, namely closeness of the advice to the judge's estimate. Interdependent advice was not only more consistent than independent advice but also closer to the judge's first estimate. The present study aimed at disentangling the effects of consensus and closeness of the advice by adding a third experimental condition in which interdependent (and, hence, consistent) advice was far from the judge's own estimate. We found that, as suggested by Yaniv et al., accuracy gains were indeed a consequence of advisor interdependence. However, in contrast to Yaniv et al.'s conclusions, confidence in the correctness of one's estimates was mostly a function of the advice's proximity to the participants' initial estimations, thereby indicating a social validation effect. (PsycINFO Database Record
当建议来自相互依赖的来源时（例如，来自使用相同数据库的顾问），与独立建议相比，所获得的信息应该更少。另一方面，由于个体追求一致性，与相互冲突的建议相比，他们应该对一致的建议更有信心，并且相互依赖的建议应该比独立建议更一致。在一项调查相互依赖与独立建议对法官准确性和信心的不同影响的研究中（亚尼夫、乔申 - 希勒尔和米利亚夫斯基，2009年），建议的相互依赖性与另一个变量混淆在一起，即建议与法官估计的接近程度。相互依赖的建议不仅比独立建议更一致，而且更接近法官的首次估计。本研究旨在通过增加第三种实验条件来厘清建议的一致性和接近程度的影响，在该条件下，相互依赖（因此也是一致）的建议与法官自己的估计相差甚远。我们发现，正如亚尼夫等人所指出的，准确性的提高确实是顾问相互依赖的结果。然而，与亚尼夫等人的结论相反，对自己估计正确性的信心主要是建议与参与者初始估计接近程度的函数，从而表明了一种社会验证效应。（《心理学文摘数据库记录》
