Minami M
Department of Psychology, Faculty of Education, Hiroshima University.
Shinrigaku Kenkyu. 1997 Jun;68(2):79-87. doi: 10.4992/jjpsy.68.79.
A number of studies on probability judgment have reported that people often tend to neglect the base-rate in the Cab Problem (Bar-Hillel, 1980). To explain the base-rate neglect, the present research hypothesized that subjects presented with the Cab Problem focused on the case information in the problem, because the subjects were asked to estimate probability based on that particular case. In 'two experiments, subjects' individuated or general interpretation of the Cab Problem was manipulated by instructing the subjects to play either responsible or neutral judge's role, respectively. The results suggested that in the responsible judge condition the case information had large impact on subjects' judgment, whereas in the neutral judge condition it did not. These results implied that the subject's base-rate neglect arose from taking the individuated interpretation.
一些关于概率判断的研究报告称，人们在“出租车问题”中往往倾向于忽视基础概率（巴-希勒尔，1980）。为了解释基础概率忽视现象，本研究假设，面对“出租车问题”的受试者关注的是问题中的个案信息，因为受试者被要求基于该特定个案来估计概率。在两项实验中，通过分别指示受试者扮演负责或中立的法官角色，来操纵受试者对“出租车问题”的个体化或一般性解读。结果表明，在负责法官条件下，个案信息对受试者的判断有很大影响，而在中立法官条件下则不然。这些结果意味着，受试者的基础概率忽视源于采用了个体化解读。
