Seitz Alfred
Lehrstuhl für Tierökologie der Universität Bayreuth, Postfach 3008, D-8580, Bayreuth, Germany.
Oecologia. 1979 Aug;41(3):343-369. doi: 10.1007/BF00377439.
A two-instar and a three-instar model for the calculation of birth and death rates is proposed which both use only a minimum of assumptions. It is shown that the proposed approach is a generalization of the methods of Edmondson (1960, 1968), Caswell (1972), and Paloheimo (1974). The validity of the two methods is compared with two-instar and three-instar models according to Edmondson, Caswell and Paloheimo. Since it is impossible to use field data for the comparison, a set of 27 computer simulations was run. From these simulations the "true" and estimated values were obtained. The comparisons showed that it is better to use the new "two-instar" model in an environment with no instarspecific mortality. But it is better to use "three-instar" models when strong instarspecific selection prevails. Among the "three-instar" models the best results are obtained by the method of Paloheimo when predicting birth rates of young and of adults. It proved that the bias produced by the several methods is mainly influenced by the amount of deviation from the situation of steady state.
提出了一种用于计算出生率和死亡率的两龄期和三龄期模型，这两种模型都只使用最少的假设。结果表明，所提出的方法是对埃德蒙森（1960年、1968年）、卡斯韦尔（1972年）和帕洛海莫（1974年）方法的推广。根据埃德蒙森、卡斯韦尔和帕洛海莫的方法，将这两种方法的有效性与两龄期和三龄期模型进行了比较。由于无法使用实地数据进行比较，因此运行了一组27次计算机模拟。从这些模拟中获得了“真实”值和估计值。比较结果表明，在没有龄期特异性死亡率的环境中，使用新的“两龄期”模型更好。但当存在强烈的龄期特异性选择时，使用“三龄期”模型更好。在“三龄期”模型中，帕洛海莫的方法在预测幼体和成体的出生率时能获得最佳结果。事实证明，几种方法产生的偏差主要受与稳态情况的偏差量的影响。
