den Boer P J, Reddingius J
Biological Station LUW, Kampsweg 27, 9418 PD, Wijster, The Netherlands.
Oecologia. 1989 May;79(2):143-149. doi: 10.1007/BF00388470.
When testing for regulation of population numbers, rather than using Bulmer's second test in cases where population numbers are estimated instead of measured, we prefer to correct Bulmer's first test for estimation error. A correction method is expounded, discussed, and applied to two series of census data: the pine looper of Klomp and the garden chafer of Milne. In neither case the tentative conclusion from using the uncorrected test was changed after correction. Therefore, in practice Bulmer's first test without correction can be used well as a first orientation. Twelve long series (more than 10 years) of census data of both univoltine and semelparous (a necessary condition) insects were tested for significant density dependence in the fluctuations of numbers with the randomization test of Pollard et al. None of the series, all we could find to meet the necessary condition as well as being longer than 10 years, showed significant density dependence at the 0.05 level, though the pine looper of Klomp did so at the 0.1 level. Next, the same series were tested for regulation in the sense of "keeping density within limits" with both the first test of Bulmer and the permutation test of Reddingius and Den Boer. Onky Klomp's pine looper population at "Hoge Veluwe" scored significantly. In a following paper this population will be considered more closely, in order to enable understanding of this test result.
在测试种群数量的调节时，若不是在测量种群数量而是估计种群数量的情况下使用布尔默的第二次检验，我们更倾向于对布尔默的第一次检验进行估计误差校正。阐述并讨论了一种校正方法，并将其应用于两组普查数据：克伦普的松尺蠖和米尔恩的花园金龟子。校正后，在这两种情况下，使用未校正检验得出的初步结论均未改变。因此，在实际应用中，未经校正的布尔默第一次检验可很好地用作初步指导。使用波拉德等人的随机化检验，对单化性和一次生殖（必要条件）昆虫的12个长序列（超过10年）普查数据进行了种群数量波动中显著密度依赖性的检验。在所有我们能找到的满足必要条件且长度超过10年的序列中，没有一个在0.05水平上显示出显著的密度依赖性，尽管克伦普的松尺蠖在0.1水平上显示出显著的密度依赖性。接下来，使用布尔默的第一次检验和雷丁吉厄斯与登布尔的置换检验，对同一序列进行“将密度控制在一定范围内”意义上的调节检验。只有克伦普在“霍格维卢韦”的松尺蠖种群得分显著。在接下来的一篇论文中，将更仔细地研究这个种群，以便理解这一检验结果。
