Density dependence and the stabilization of animal numbers : 1. The winter moth.

The claim of Varley and Gradwell that the highly density-dependent pupal predation (k ) in the population of the winter moth in Wytham Wood, England would keep density within limits (regulate) is compared in this paper with the density limits in the null model: pupal predation causes the same mean generation mortality (35%) as in the field, but is not density-dependent, i.e. either constant or randomly fluctuating between years according to the actual frequency distribution, ceteris paribus. According to this null model the winter moth would have fluctuated between narrower limits than in the field; the claim of Varley & Gradwell must thus be rejected. It is more generally concluded that a regulating factor should be the key factor, but this is not a sufficient condition. It should also prevent in some way the low throughs in the time series that usually accompany the operation of a dominating density-dependent mortality factor.