Extinction dynamics, population growth and seed banks : An example using an age-structured annual.

The goal of this paper is to test theoretical predictions about the effects of seed banks on population dynamics and extinction rates in variable environments using simulations based on data from a natural population of the winter annual Collinsia verna. In the simulations, we varied the frequency of demographically good and bad years and the autocorrelation between conditions in consecutive years to examine the impact of seed dormancy on population growth rate, extinction rate and time to extinction. The existence of a seed bank enhanced population growth rates under all environmental regimes except when good years were very frequent, but this enhancement was minimal. In addition, the presence of the seed bank decreased the likelihood of extinctions and increased the time to extinction. The time to extinction was longest when the environmental conditions were most unpredictable.