Ellner S
Theor Popul Biol. 1985 Aug;28(1):50-79. doi: 10.1016/0040-5809(85)90022-x.
ESS germination strategies are studied in a model of annual plant population dynamics in a randomly varying environment. The possible strategies are different values of the annual germination fraction G, either constant over time or varying in response to a "cue" correlated with upcoming environmental conditions. The model generalizes D. Cohen's model (1966, J. Theor. Biol. 12, 119-129; 1968, J. Ecol. 56, 219-228) by allowing density-dependent per capita seed yields. ESSs are characterized in terms of the resulting harmonic mean growth rate of population density. The ESS criterion cannot be solved analytically, but qualitative relationships between the value of the ESS and other population parameters are obtained, and environments in which 100% germination is an ESS are identified. Some explicit predictions of the theory are summarized and compared with ideas of M. Westoby (1981, Amer. Nat. 118, 882-885). The results of this study are compared with those of Cohen (op. cit.) in a companion paper.
在一个随机变化环境中的一年生植物种群动态模型中，研究了进化稳定策略（ESS）的萌发策略。可能的策略是年度萌发率G的不同值，G可以随时间恒定，也可以根据与即将到来的环境条件相关的“线索”而变化。该模型通过允许种子产量依赖于密度的人均产量，推广了D. 科恩的模型（1966年，《理论生物学杂志》12卷，第119 - 129页；1968年，《生态学杂志》56卷，第219 - 228页）。ESS通过种群密度的调和平均增长率来表征。ESS标准无法通过解析方法求解，但获得了ESS值与其他种群参数之间的定性关系，并确定了100%萌发是ESS的环境。总结了该理论的一些明确预测，并与M. 韦斯托比（1981年，《美国博物学家》118卷，第882 - 885页）的观点进行了比较。在一篇配套论文中，将本研究的结果与科恩（同前引）的结果进行了比较。
