Cranfield University, School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield, Bedfordshire, UK.
Department of Management, London School of Economics, London, UK.
Risk Anal. 2017 Sep;37(9):1683-1692. doi: 10.1111/risa.12735. Epub 2017 Mar 17.
Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others.
沟通资源分配的基本原理，以管理政策重点及其风险具有挑战性。在这里，我们证明了环境风险在其影响方面具有多样化的属性和场所，这可能导致公民之间不成比例的反应。当 2065 名调查参与者运用总结信息和自己的理解来单独评估 12 项政策层面的环境风险时，他们的评估与先前的专家评估不同。然而，当将这 12 个风险视为一个整体时，参与者提供的排名与专家相似，从而可以比较不同的风险。在此之后，当个人看到先前对该投资组合的专家评估时，他们对综合专家分析表示出中等程度的信心。这些发现对于理解可能会受到气候变化影响的政策风险、在国家风险评估中与其他威胁一起呈现这些风险，以及公民和其他人对公共风险管理机构的解释具有重要意义。
