Columbia Aging Centre, Columbia University, New York.
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2018 Oct 10;73(8):1439-1445. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbw144.
The religious landscape of older adults around the world is changing profoundly. Yet until now, no study has chronicled these changes or compared expected aging patterns of religious groups. Differential aging among religious groups can have important economic and social consequences. This study estimates and projects the future religious composition by age at the global and regional levels.
This study presents estimates of age structures by religion for 2010 and projections until 2050. It is based on analyses of more than 2,500 censuses, registers, and surveys from 198 countries. Regional and global results are the aggregate of demographic projections carried out at the country level.
In 2010, Muslims were least likely to be aged 60 or older (7% of all Muslims), and Jews were most likely to be in this age group (20% of all Jews). By 2050, we project that Buddhists and the religiously unaffiliated will have the oldest populations (both will have 32% above the age of 60), whereas Muslims will remain the youngest religious group (with only 16% above the age of 60). Christians will, globally, age relatively slowly, from 14% to 21% above the age of 60 from 2010 to 2050.
The religious landscape among the world's seniors will change fundamentally in the coming years, due to the combination of rapid aging among the religiously unaffiliated and Buddhist populations and the persistence of relatively young age structures among Muslims and Christians, which are the dominant religions in Africa.
全球老年人群的宗教信仰格局正在发生深刻变化。然而，迄今为止，尚无研究记录这些变化或比较宗教群体的预期老龄化模式。宗教群体的老龄化差异可能会产生重要的经济和社会后果。本研究估计并预测了全球和地区层面按年龄划分的未来宗教构成。
本研究根据来自 198 个国家的 2500 多次人口普查、登记和调查，对 2010 年的宗教年龄结构进行了估计，并对 2050 年之前的情况进行了预测。它基于对各国进行的人口预测分析。
2010 年，穆斯林最不可能达到 60 岁或以上（所有穆斯林的 7%），而犹太人最有可能处于这个年龄段（所有犹太人的 20%）。到 2050 年，我们预计佛教徒和无宗教信仰者将拥有最年长的人口（两者都将有 32%的人在 60 岁以上），而穆斯林将仍然是最年轻的宗教群体（只有 16%的人在 60 岁以上）。从 2010 年到 2050 年，全球范围内的基督徒将相对缓慢地老龄化，60 岁以上的比例将从 14%上升到 21%。
由于无宗教信仰者和佛教徒人口的快速老龄化以及穆斯林和基督徒（非洲主要宗教）相对年轻的年龄结构的持续存在，未来几年，全球老年人的宗教信仰格局将发生根本变化。
