Kjellström Erik, Bärring Lars, Nikulin Grigory, Nilsson Carin, Persson Gunn, Strandberg Gustav
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, S-60176 Norrköping, Sweden.
Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
Clim Serv. 2016 Sep;2-3:15-29. doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2016.06.004.
We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50 km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.
我们描述了以罗斯比中心区域气候模型RCA4的区域气候模型结果为核心构建气候服务的过程。该气候服务的核心设施是瑞典气象水文研究所提供的一项网络服务，用户可以通过一系列地图、图表、解释性文本和用户指南，了解气候变化的各个方面。在此，我们展示了该网络服务的内容，以及在与服务用户长达十多年的对话合作中，它是如何设计和开发的。我们还展示了使用RCA4进行的气候预测集合，该集合提供了网络服务中呈现的基本气候信息。在这种背景下，RCA4已被用于将第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的九个不同的大气 - 海洋耦合环流模型（AOGCM）降尺度到欧洲0.44°（约50公里）的水平分辨率。此外，我们研究了这个集合与CMIP5集合的关系。我们发现，涉及气候服务用户的迭代方法很成功，因为该服务被广泛使用，并且是瑞典气候适应工作的重要信息来源。RCA4集合涵盖了CMIP5集合中的很大一部分变化，这意味着它可用于说明瑞典未来气候变化的不确定性和稳健性。结果还表明，与基础AOGCM相比，RCA4会改变结果，有时是系统性的改变。
