Åström Christofer, Åström Daniel Oudin, Andersson Camilla, Ebi Kristie L, Forsberg Bertil
Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, SE90187 Umeå, Sweden.
Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Lund University, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE21428 Malmö, Sweden.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Jul 7;14(7):741. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14070741.
The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.
预计在未来几十年，随着全球平均气温上升以及极端高温事件增多，热浪带来的健康负担将会增加。极端高温对健康的影响在老年人群体中更为常见。欧洲人口正在迅速老龄化，这将加剧未来气温对健康的影响。在本研究中，我们估算了降低对高温的脆弱性所需的适应程度，以防止21世纪50年代与高温相关的死亡人数增加；这就是所需的适应性风险降低（ARR）。来自18个气候模型的代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5下的温度预测，与网格化人口数据以及一项关于欧洲多城市高温相关死亡率的研究中的暴露-反应关系相结合。在21世纪50年代，基于RCP 4.5下的温度预测，普通人群的ARR为53.5%。对于南欧65岁以上的人群，预计在气候不变的未来，ARR为45.9%，在RCP 4.5下气候变化的情况下为74.7%。在RCP 8.5下，ARR更高。无论遵循哪种排放情景或采用何种人口预测，欧洲都需要进行很大程度的适应，以将与高温相关的死亡率维持在目前的水平，而目前的死亡率本身就高得令人无法接受，这构成了更大的挑战。
