Projected impacts of urbanisation on hydrological resource flows: A case study within the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa.

Significant land use changes from natural/agricultural to urban land uses have been proposed within the Mpushini/Mkhondeni sub-catchments of the uMngeni Catchment in South Africa. A better understanding of the influences which such land use changes are likely to have on hydrological flows, is required, in order to make informed land use decisions for a sustainable future. As a point of departure, an overview of linkages between urbanisation and hydrological flow responses within this sub-humid study area is given. The urban characteristics of increased impervious areas and the potential return flows from transfers of potable water from outside the catchment were identified as being important in regard to hydrological flow responses. A methodology was developed to model urban response scenarios with urban characteristics as variables, using the daily time-step process based ACRU model. This is a hydrological multi-process model and not an urban hydraulic model and it addresses the landscape as well as the channel components of a catchment, and in addition to runoff components includes evaporation and transpiration losses as outputs. For the study area strong links between proposed urbanisation and hydrological resource flow responses were found, with increases in stormflows, together with increased and more regulated baseflows, and with impacts varying markedly between dry or wet years and by season. The impacts will depend on the fractions of impervious areas, whether or not these are connected to permeable areas, the amount of imported water and water system leaks. Furthermore, the urban hydrological impacts were found to be relatively greater in more arid than humid areas because of changes in the rainfall to runoff conversion. Flow changes due to urbanisation are considered to have important environmental impacts, requiring mitigation. The methodology used in this paper could be used for other urbanising areas.