Tota Joseph E, Anderson William F, Coffey Charles, Califano Joseph, Cozen Wendy, Ferris Robert L, St John Maie, Cohen Ezra E W, Chaturvedi Anil K
National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Rockville, MD, USA.
National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Rockville, MD, USA.
Oral Oncol. 2017 Apr;67:146-152. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2017.02.019. Epub 2017 Feb 28.
Despite significant reductions in tobacco use in the US, oral tongue cancer incidence has reportedly increased in recent years, particularly in young white women. We conducted age-period-cohort analyses to identify birth cohorts that have experienced increased oral tongue cancer incidence, and compared these with trends for oropharyngeal cancer, a cancer caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) that has also recently increased.
We utilized cancer incidence data (1973-2012) from 18 registries maintained by the NCI SEER Program. Incidence trends were evaluated using log-linear joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling was utilized to simultaneously evaluate effects of age, calendar year, and birth year on incidence trends.
Incidence of oral tongue cancer increased significantly among white women during 1973-2012 (0.6% annual increase, p<0.001) and white men during 2008-2012 (5.1% annual increase, p=0.004). The increase was most apparent among younger white individuals (<50years; annual increase of 0.7% for men [p=0.02] and 1.7% for women [p<0.001] during 1973-2012). Furthermore, the magnitude of the increase during 1973-2012 was similar between young white men and women (2.3 vs. 1.8 cases per million, respectively). Incidence trends for oropharyngeal cancer were similar to trends for oral tongue cancer and similar birth cohorts (born after the 1940s) experienced rising incidence of these cancers (p-value: white men=0.12, white women=0.42), although the magnitude of increase was greater for oropharyngeal cancer.
The incidence of oral tongue and oropharyngeal cancer has significantly increased among young white men and women within the same birth cohorts in the US.
尽管美国的烟草使用量显著下降，但据报道，近年来口腔舌癌的发病率有所上升，尤其是在年轻白人女性中。我们进行了年龄-时期-队列分析，以确定口腔舌癌发病率上升的出生队列，并将其与口咽癌的趋势进行比较，口咽癌是一种由人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）引起的癌症，近年来也有所增加。
我们利用了美国国立癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）计划维护的18个登记处的癌症发病率数据（1973 - 2012年）。使用对数线性连接点回归评估发病率趋势，并利用年龄-时期-队列模型同时评估年龄、日历年份和出生年份对发病率趋势的影响。
1973 - 2012年期间，白人女性口腔舌癌发病率显著上升（年增长率为0.6%，p<0.001），2008 - 2012年期间，白人男性发病率显著上升（年增长率为5.1%，p = 0.004）。这种上升在年轻白人个体（<50岁）中最为明显；1973 - 2012年期间，男性年增长率为0.7%（p = 0.02），女性年增长率为1.7%（p<0.001）。此外，1973 - 2012年期间，年轻白人男性和女性发病率上升的幅度相似（分别为每百万2.3例和1.8例）。口咽癌的发病率趋势与口腔舌癌相似，并且相似的出生队列（20世纪40年代后出生）经历了这些癌症发病率的上升（p值：白人男性 = 0.12，白人女性 = 0.42），尽管口咽癌的上升幅度更大。
在美国，同一出生队列的年轻白人男性和女性中，口腔舌癌和口咽癌的发病率显著上升。
