Malik Afifa, Yasar Abdullah, Tabinda Amtul Bari, Zaheer Ihsan Elahi, Malik Khalida, Batool Adeeba, Mahfooz Yusra
Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Government College University, Allama Iqbal Road, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.
Environ Monit Assess. 2017 Apr;189(4):189. doi: 10.1007/s10661-017-5902-x. Epub 2017 Mar 28.
Th aim of this study is to investigate spatio-temporal trends of dengue vector breeding and epidemic (disease incidence) influenced by climatic factors. The spatio-temporal (low-, medium-, and high-intensity periods) evaluation of entomological and epidemiological investigations along with climatic factors like rainfall (RF), temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and larval indexing was conducted to develop correlations in the area of Lahore, Pakistan. The vector abundance and disease transmission trend was geo-tagged for spatial insight. The sufficient rainfall events and optimum temperature and relative humidity supported dengue vector breeding with high larval indices for water-related containers (27-37%). Among temporal analysis, the high-intensity period exponentially projected disease incidence followed by post-rainfall impacts. The high larval incidence that was observed in early high-intensity periods effected the dengue incidence. The disease incidence had a strong association with RF (r = 0.940, α = 0.01). The vector larva occurrence (r = 0.017, α = 0.05) influenced the disease incidence. Similarly, RH (r = 0.674, α = 0.05) and average T (r = 0.307, α = 0.05) also induced impact on the disease incidence. In this study, the vulnerability to dengue fever highly correlates with meteorological factors during high-intensity period. It provides area-specific understanding of vector behavior, key containers, and seasonal patterns of dengue vector breeding and disease transmission which is essential for preparing an effective prevention plan against the vector.
本研究的目的是调查受气候因素影响的登革热媒介滋生和流行（疾病发病率）的时空趋势。在巴基斯坦拉合尔地区，对昆虫学和流行病学调查以及降雨（RF）、温度（T）、相对湿度（RH）和幼虫指数等气候因素进行了时空（低、中、高强度时期）评估，以建立相关性。对病媒丰度和疾病传播趋势进行地理标记以获得空间洞察力。充足的降雨事件以及适宜的温度和相对湿度有利于登革热媒介滋生，与水相关容器的幼虫指数较高（27%-37%）。在时间分析中，高强度时期疾病发病率呈指数增长，随后是降雨后的影响。在高强度初期观察到的高幼虫发病率影响了登革热发病率。疾病发病率与RF密切相关（r = 0.940，α = 0.01）。媒介幼虫的出现（r = 0.017，α = 0.05）影响了疾病发病率。同样，RH（r = 0.674，α = 0.05）和平均T（r = 0.307，α = 0.05）也对疾病发病率产生影响。在本研究中，登革热的易感性在高强度时期与气象因素高度相关。它提供了对病媒行为、关键容器以及登革热媒介滋生和疾病传播季节性模式的特定区域理解，这对于制定有效的病媒预防计划至关重要。
