Betanzos-Reyes Ángel Francisco, Rodríguez Mario Henry, Romero-Martínez Martín, Sesma-Medrano Eduardo, Rangel-Flores Hilda, Santos-Luna René
Centro de Investigación sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México.
Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Ciudad de México, México.
Salud Publica Mex. 2018 Jan-Feb;60(1):12-20. doi: 10.21149/8141.
To analyze the association of dengue fever incidence with Aedes mosquito's abundance, and the effect of climatological and geographical variables, in a region in Morelos State, Mexico.
Weekly data during the period 2010 to 2014 was used. Mosquito abundance was determined using ovitraps. Confirmed dengue cases were obtained from the Epidemiological Surveillance System. Climatic variables were obtained from weather monitoringstations. The correlation between climate variables and ovitraps data was estimated using a multivariate regression model.
A correlation of mosquito abundance with dengue fever incidence, and a yearly pattern with seasonal variations were observed. The daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall parameters were associated with mosquito egg abundance. Time lags of three and four weeks between egg counts and dengue fever incidence were observed.
Time lags between egg counts and dengue incidence could be useful for prevention and control interventions.
分析墨西哥莫雷洛斯州某地区登革热发病率与埃及伊蚊数量的关联，以及气候和地理变量的影响。
使用2010年至2014年期间的每周数据。通过诱蚊产卵器确定蚊子数量。确诊的登革热病例来自流行病学监测系统。气候变量来自气象监测站。使用多元回归模型估计气候变量与诱蚊产卵器数据之间的相关性。
观察到蚊子数量与登革热发病率之间存在相关性，且呈现出具有季节性变化的年度模式。日平均温度、相对湿度和降雨参数与蚊卵数量相关。观察到蚊卵计数与登革热发病率之间存在三周和四周的时间滞后。
蚊卵计数与登革热发病率之间的时间滞后可能有助于预防和控制干预措施。
