Manz Kirsi M, Clowes Petra, Kroidl Inge, Kowuor Dickens O, Geldmacher Christof, Ntinginya Nyanda E, Maboko Leonard, Hoelscher Michael, Saathoff Elmar
Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany.
Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical Center of the University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany.
PLoS One. 2017 Apr 6;12(4):e0175137. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0175137. eCollection 2017.
The intestinal nematode Trichuris trichiura is among the most common causes of human infectious disease worldwide. As for other soil-transmitted nematodes, its reproductive success and thus prevalence and intensity of infection in a given area strongly depend on environmental conditions. Characterization of the influence of environmental factors can therefore aid to identify infection hot spots for targeted mass treatment.
We analyzed data from a cross-sectional survey including 6234 participants from nine distinct study sites in Mbeya region, Tanzania. A geographic information system was used to combine remotely sensed and individual data, which were analyzed using uni- and multivariable Poisson regression. Household clustering was accounted for and when necessary, fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear relationships between T. trichiura infection prevalence and environmental variables.
T. trichiura infection was restricted to the Kyela site, close to Lake Nyasa with only very few cases in the other eight sites. The prevalence of T. trichiura infection in Kyela was 26.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 23.9 to 29.6%). Multivariable models revealed a positive association of infection with denser vegetation (prevalence ratio (PR) per 0.1 EVI units = 2.12, CI 1.28 to 3.50) and inverse associations with rainfall (PR per 100 mm = 0.54, CI 0.44 to 0.67) and elevation (PR per meter = 0.89, CI 0.86 to 0.93) while adjusting for age and previous worm treatment. Slope of the terrain was modelled non-linearly and also showed a positive association with T. trichiura infection (p-value p<0.001).
CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Higher prevalences of T. trichiura infection were only found in Kyela, a study site characterized by denser vegetation, high rainfall, low elevation and flat terrain. But even within this site, we found significant influences of vegetation density, rainfall, elevation and slope on T. trichiura infection. The inverse association of rainfall with infection in Kyela is likely due to the fact, that rainfall in this site is beyond the optimum conditions for egg development. Our findings demonstrate that use of remotely sensed environmental data can aid to predict high-risk areas for targeted helminth control.
肠道线虫鞭虫是全球人类传染病最常见的病因之一。与其他土壤传播的线虫一样,其繁殖成功率以及在特定区域的感染率和感染强度很大程度上取决于环境条件。因此,表征环境因素的影响有助于识别感染热点,以便进行有针对性的群体治疗。
我们分析了来自坦桑尼亚姆贝亚地区九个不同研究地点的6234名参与者的横断面调查数据。使用地理信息系统将遥感数据和个体数据相结合,并采用单变量和多变量泊松回归进行分析。考虑了家庭聚类,必要时使用分数多项式来捕捉鞭虫感染率与环境变量之间的非线性关系。
鞭虫感染仅限于靠近马拉维湖的凯拉地区,其他八个地区仅有极少数病例。凯拉地区鞭虫感染率为26.6%(95%置信区间(CI)为23.9%至29.6%)。多变量模型显示,在调整年龄和既往驱虫治疗后,感染与更茂密的植被呈正相关(每0.1 EVI单位的患病率比值(PR)= 2.12,CI为1.28至3.50),与降雨量呈负相关(每100毫米的PR = 0.54,CI为0.44至0.67),与海拔呈负相关(每米的PR = 0.89,CI为0.86至0.93)。对地形坡度进行非线性建模,结果也显示与鞭虫感染呈正相关(p值p<0.001)。
结论/意义:仅在凯拉地区发现了较高的鞭虫感染率,该研究地点的特点是植被茂密、降雨量大、海拔低且地形平坦。但即使在该地区内,我们也发现植被密度、降雨量、海拔和坡度对鞭虫感染有显著影响。凯拉地区降雨量与感染呈负相关,可能是因为该地区的降雨量超出了虫卵发育的最佳条件。我们的研究结果表明,使用遥感环境数据有助于预测有针对性的蠕虫控制的高危地区。