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发展中世界生殖转型年龄的趋势:教育的作用。

Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education.

作者信息

Bongaarts John, Mensch Barbara S, Blanc Ann K

机构信息

a The Population Council.

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 2017 Jul;71(2):139-154. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986. Epub 2017 Apr 11.

Abstract

Girls' school participation has expanded considerably in the developing world over the last few decades, a phenomenon expected to have substantial consequences for reproductive behaviour. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 43 countries, this paper examines trends and differentials in the mean ages at three critical life-cycle events for young women: first sexual intercourse, first marriage, and first birth. We measure the extent to which trends in the timing of these events are driven either by the changing educational composition of populations or by changes in behaviour within education groups. Mean ages have risen over time in all regions for all three events, except age at first sex in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results from a decomposition exercise indicate that increases in educational attainment, rather than trends within education groups, are primarily responsible for the overall trends. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed.

摘要

在过去几十年里,发展中世界女童入学率大幅提高,这一现象预计会对生育行为产生重大影响。本文利用43个国家的人口与健康调查数据,研究了年轻女性在三个关键生命周期事件上的平均年龄趋势及差异:首次性行为、初婚和首次生育。我们衡量了这些事件发生时间的趋势在多大程度上是由人口教育构成的变化或教育群体内部行为的变化所驱动的。除拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的首次性行为年龄外,所有地区这三个事件的平均年龄都随时间上升。分解分析结果表明,教育程度的提高而非教育群体内部的趋势是总体趋势的主要原因。文中讨论了这些发现的可能解释。

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