White Allison M, Zambrana-Torrelio Carlos, Allen Toph, Rostal Melinda K, Wright Andrea K, Ball Eileen C, Daszak Peter, Karesh William B
EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10001, USA.
EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10001, USA.
Vet J. 2017 Apr;222:29-35. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2017.02.009. Epub 2017 Mar 2.
Leptospirosis is a widespread zoonotic disease that causes hepatic and renal disease in dogs and human beings. The incidence of leptospirosis in dogs in the USA appears to be increasing. This study used 14 years of canine leptospirosis testing data across 3109 counties in the USA to analyze environmental and socio-economic correlates with rates of infection and to produce a map of locations of increased risk for canine leptospirosis. Boosted regression trees were used to identify the probability of a dog testing positive for leptospirosis based on microscopic agglutination test (MAT) results, and environmental and socio-economic data. The Midwest, East and Southwest were more likely to yield positive tests for leptospirosis, although specific counties in Appalachia had some of the highest predicted probabilities. Location (suburban areas or areas with deciduous forest) and climate (precipitation and temperature) were predictors for positive MAT results for leptospirosis, although the precise direction and strength of the effects was difficult to interpret. Wide geographic variation in predicted risk was identified. This risk mapping approach may provide opportunities for improved diagnosis, control and prevention of leptospirosis in dogs.
钩端螺旋体病是一种广泛传播的人畜共患病，可导致犬类和人类出现肝脏和肾脏疾病。在美国，犬类钩端螺旋体病的发病率似乎在上升。本研究利用美国3109个县14年的犬类钩端螺旋体病检测数据，分析感染率与环境及社会经济因素之间的相关性，并绘制犬类钩端螺旋体病高风险地区地图。采用增强回归树方法，根据显微镜凝集试验（MAT）结果以及环境和社会经济数据，确定犬类钩端螺旋体病检测呈阳性的概率。美国中西部、东部和西南部地区钩端螺旋体病检测呈阳性的可能性更大，不过阿巴拉契亚地区的一些特定县预测概率最高。地理位置（郊区或落叶林地区）和气候（降水量和温度）是钩端螺旋体病MAT检测呈阳性的预测因素，尽管其影响的确切方向和强度难以解读。研究确定了预测风险在地理上的广泛差异。这种风险映射方法可能为改善犬类钩端螺旋体病的诊断、控制和预防提供机会。
