Kundu Sananda, Khare Deepak, Mondal Arun
Department of Water Resources Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India.
J Environ Manage. 2017 Jul 15;197:582-596. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.04.018. Epub 2017 Apr 18.
Landuse change influences the water balance of a region affecting the available water along with the change in the evapotranspiration (ET). The major objectives of this study are to assess the landuse change and its impact on the water balance of the study area, which is a part of the Narmada river basin in Madhya Pradesh, India. Landuse changes of 1990, 2000 and 2011 have been analyzed and the Markov Chain model has been used to predict decadal change of 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 landuse. The influence of the past, present and future landuse change on water balance has been analyzed with the SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model in the study area. The effect of changes are shown in 12 different sub-watersheds of the area, reflecting an increased water yield (runoff, including ground-water outflow) and surface runoff but decreased ET, which is due to change in the curve number (CN) values (79.85 in 1990 to 84.63 in 2050). Increased CN value in different sub-watersheds of the region has been observed due to a reduction in the vegetation areas, and increase in the agricultural land and settlements. This has caused an increased runoff and decreased ET. The water yield has increased by 6.98% from 1990 to 2011 (1.92 CN increase) and by 17.5% as projected in the 2050 (4.78 CN increase). The actual ET decreases by 3.37% from 1990 to 2011 and by 8.40% in 2050. Simulation with the SWAT using landuse change showed reduction in ET and increased runoff in different sub-watersheds, which needs to be considered in terms of management.
土地利用变化会影响一个地区的水平衡，随着蒸散量（ET）的变化，影响可用水量。本研究的主要目的是评估土地利用变化及其对研究区域水平衡的影响，该区域是印度中央邦讷尔默达河流域的一部分。分析了1990年、2000年和2011年的土地利用变化，并使用马尔可夫链模型预测2020年、2030年、2040年和2050年的土地利用十年变化。利用SWAT（土壤和水资源分析工具）模型分析了研究区域过去、现在和未来土地利用变化对水平衡的影响。变化的影响在该区域的12个不同子流域中显示出来，反映出产水量（径流，包括地下水流出）和地表径流增加，但ET减少，这是由于曲线数（CN）值的变化（1990年为79.85，2050年为84.63）。由于植被面积减少，农业用地和居民点增加，该区域不同子流域的CN值有所增加。这导致径流增加，ET减少。从1990年到2011年，产水量增加了6.98%（CN增加1.92），到2050年预计增加17.5%（CN增加4.78）。实际ET从1990年到2011年下降了3.37%，到2050年下降了8.40%。利用SWAT模型进行的土地利用变化模拟显示，不同子流域的ET减少，径流增加，在管理方面需要考虑这一点。
